The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two‐way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two‐way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short‐run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long‐run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

农村信贷的思考——联保贷款的缺陷与创新

农户联保贷款是近年来农村信用社摸索并正大力支持的一种新型的支农贷款方式。它的推行在一定程度上缓解了农民贷款难的问题,对农村经济结构的战略调整和经济金融的发展发挥了积极的作用。但在具体的实践过程中,其“实施难”的问题日益显现,其自身存在的缺陷也不断显露。为此,本文分析了制约农户联保贷款实施的因素以外,从农户、信用社自身等角度提出了对策建议,并提出了交叉联保的创新机制;同时,对新机制实施的必要性、可行性和实施过程中应注意的问题作了进一步研究。     

发展我国商业银行个人理财业务的思考

与西方商业银行发展迅速的个人理财业务相比，我国商业银行这项业务的发展明显落后，且差距很大。面对当今我国商业银行传统业务风险日趋增大，存贷款利差日趋缩小、外资银行步步进逼的新形势，我国商业银行应当深刻反思其发展滞后的原因，提出切实可行的发展对策。     

网络教学平台的学生成绩分析管理模块实现方法初探

该文从笔者参与开发的网络教学平台的总体功能出发,介绍了利用JSP/Servlet技术,开发基于Web的网络教学平台的成绩分析管理模块的数据处理方法和实现框架,对网络教学的测量与评价方法作初步的探讨。     

高校“两课“教学存在的问题与对策之我见

"两课"是对大学生进行马克思主义理论与思想政治教育的主阵地和主渠道,本文分析了"两课"教学存在的主要问题及原因,对提高"两课"教学实效性的对策进行了探索和思考.     

Top executive gender diversity and financial reporting quality

We examine whether gender diversity of chief executive and chief financial officers (CEOs and CFOs) is associated with financial reporting quality. The CEOs and CFOs of publicly traded companies are both required to certify the appropriateness of their financial statements and annual disclosures. We argue that gender diverse dyads (groups) of executives can bring different perspectives and professional skepticism to financial reporting. Using a sample of different CEO/CFO gender dyads during 2006–2019, we postulate and find evidence of higher accruals quality among firms led by gender-diverse dyads compared to accruals quality reported by firms led by all-male CEO/CFO pairs. Additional analyses reveal that the auditors of firms with gender-diverse executive dyads issue audit reports later, charge higher audit fees, and are more likely to be one of the Big 4 firms. These findings support the view that top executive gender diversity enhances financial reporting quality, which has important implications for corporate governance mechanisms.     

中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力——基于传统IS-LM模型的实证分析

文章通过借助传统IS-LM模型和比较静态分析方法对中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力进行了实证分析,得出:(1)财政政策对经济波动的整体平滑能力较低,平均只有6.35%,财政政策的平滑能力在经济波动的不同状态之间存在明显差异;(2)财政政策工具之间的平滑能力存在较大差异,其中财政购买性支出能平滑掉经济初始冲击的11.48%,而财政转移性支出和收入政策整体上反而使经济波动上升近3%;(3)内生性检验表明,中国只有相机性支出政策与经济波动之间存在显著的双向因果关系,不仅如此,相机性支出政策的内外时滞都较短。文章结论的政策含义是,提高中国财政政策稳定效果的关键在于提高政策工具的有效性与相互之间的协同效应,不仅如此,对经济高涨时期政府财政行为进行有效约束也至关重要。     

发展中国农业保险的对策分析

目前中国农业保险发展滞后,其原因主要有农民收入不高、农业保险保费收入低、农业保险的法律法规不够完善及农业保险组织体系不够健全,应提高农民收入、完善农业保险法律法规、建立健全农业保险组织体系,以促进中国农业保险业的发展。